In the first analysis note of the year, we usually present the strategy for the year ahead. As is customary, that strategy will be shaped by whatever reality throws at it, but this does not make it any less important to set out clearly which factors we believe will be the main drivers of financial markets during the year. This statement carries more weight than ever now that, on 3 January, we have already had a piece of news with potentially significant impact: the intervention and capture of the Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, by the United States.
Back to the beginning. We will set out which forces we believe will move markets the most and, afterwards, we will attempt a first analysis of how the events in Venezuela may affect financial markets. Here we make no geopolitical, international-law or ideological judgements; we only analyse how the facts may impact markets and, therefore, our investment recommendations.
When defining our investment strategy for 2026, the first thing we do is determine which factors are likely to have the greatest impact on markets. We will focus mainly on the United States, as it is the market that “drives” the rest. In 2025 there were three major drivers: technology based on artificial intelligence, corporate earnings, and the imposition of tariffs on international trade by the Trump administration. Looking ahead to 2026, and taking this recent past as our reference, we believe that what will move markets the most will be, in this order: inflation, the impact of AI on productivity, and liquidity.
1) Inflation and monetary policy
Inflation and, consequently, monetary policy —decisions on interest rates— always have a major impact on markets. But we believe that this year that impact could be even greater. Looking at the data, since June 2024 US inflation has not risen above the 3% line. Although most analysts believed that Trump's tariffs would have a strong inflationary impact, reality has proven them wrong.
In fact, the Federal Reserve (Fed) spent much of 2025 analysing whether or not tariffs were having an inflationary effect before deciding whether to start cutting rates. In the end, and under strong pressure from Trump, it did so, although still timidly, in our view.
If in the coming months inflation heads towards 2%, the Fed will have no choice but to cut rates, which would boost equity markets. Conversely, if inflation breaks above the 3% barrier, however close the new Fed chair may be to Trump, we believe the institution will either hold rates or even raise them, hurting stock market performance. The strategy in this area will therefore involve watching how the main components of inflation evolve: consumption (tariff impact), rents, employment, energy, etc. Regarding consumption, the United States' main trading partner, China, has been exporting deflation for more than two years now, that is, ever cheaper products. As for rents, these have started to fall thanks to the construction boom of recent years in the United States. Regarding employment, this has looked very weak in recent months, which, on the one hand, hurts consumption and is disinflationary, but which, on the other hand, may push the Fed —within its dual mandate of controlling inflation and maintaining full employment— to stimulate job creation through rate cuts. In the energy sector, the United States' intent to control Venezuelan oil (the largest reserves in the world, ahead of Saudi Arabia) is already pushing the price of crude down. The price of fossil energy sets the floor for the price of renewable energy.
Taking all this into account, we believe 2026 could be a year of slowing inflation, with a positive impact on financial markets. The resulting fall in interest rates could become a bullish driver for stock markets. However, we must bear in mind the strong growth of the US economy (4.3% in the third quarter). If this growth turned out to be inflationary, the scenario could change.
2) Artificial intelligence and productivity
We believe we are still in the midst of a technological and industrial revolution built on artificial intelligence. So far, the main companies linked to AI development (chips, hardware, software, data centres, etc.) have been the big winners. However, sooner rather than later, the spread of AI will extend to most economic sectors, with two main consequences: increased investment in AI and higher productivity.
As we have mentioned on other occasions in these analysis notes, when Microsoft developed Excel, the first beneficiary was the company itself. However, as other companies replaced calculators with spreadsheets, their productivity kept rising. We think a similar process will happen with AI.
Comparing the evolution of productivity in the US technology sector with that of the non-technology sector shows that, as AI has developed, the technology sector has experienced increases in productivity, in earnings and, consequently, in stock market gains. Valuations are certainly high, but so are earnings.
In the non-technology sector, by contrast, productivity is more stagnant. We believe that the spread of AI to the rest of the economy can boost productivity and act as a bullish driver. This is where we will need to be especially tactical when analysing which sectors stand to benefit the most. One of those with the greatest potential is the financial sector, given the synergy that can be generated between AI, blockchain and the establishment of payment systems based on stablecoins.
3) Liquidity
Liquidity levels remain very high. There is a lot of money “parked” in deposits or short-term fixed income. This is an understandable situation: in the United States, interest rates have so far been high and have allowed positive real returns to be earned risk-free. As rates fall, that money will need to look for returns in higher-risk assets.
In addition, the world's major economies (the United States, China, the European Union and Japan) have launched economic stimulus plans. These plans tend to benefit large companies most, and it is precisely these companies that are listed on financial markets. Admittedly, these stimulus measures are financed with public debt, which reminds us that we must keep an eye on a possible future debt crisis, something we have already discussed on other occasions.
Therefore, looking ahead to 2026, beyond one-off news or unforeseen shocks, we believe the forces that will move markets will be inflation and the spread of AI across the corporate fabric, provided there is “fuel”, that is, liquidity. With these scenarios in mind, we are selecting the assets best placed to take advantage of each situation.
What are the risks?
In our view, the main risk is that inflation fails to come down, or that monetary stimulus ends up triggering a debt crisis. Over the past 20 years, global debt as a share of GDP has risen by 30% and is now close to 95%. Sooner or later, someone may question whether all this debt is sustainable, which could lead to a crisis.
We have also pointed out that one of the drivers of 2025 has been the growth in corporate earnings. If earnings fail to keep up such a strong pace, some correction could occur. It is worth addressing this issue, since one of the most widespread fears during the second half of 2025 has been the possibility of an AI bubble on the verge of bursting. We believe, and we have said so on several occasions, that we are not yet in a bubble phase. Valuations are high, but, for now, earnings have kept pace.
A bubble occurs when share prices —expectations— soar, but earnings —reality— do not. We believe we are not yet at that point. We may get there, but not yet. Moreover, within the technology sector we still see winners and losers; by definition, in a bubble everything rises, and that is not yet the case.
It is worth bearing in mind, however, that there are many technology and AI companies that are not listed on the stock market. In private markets, valuations that are completely disconnected from earnings capacity are already starting to appear. It is in private equity and private credit where we think some shock could occur, with possible contagion to public markets. We must also consider what could happen if many of these companies were to go public at the same time (OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX…). Will there be enough capital for all of them? Or will some of the money currently invested in listed markets shift towards these IPOs, putting downward pressure on other assets?
In view of these risk scenarios, we have been preparing contingency plans with assets that can help protect wealth or seize opportunities.
Venezuela
On 3 January 2026, the United States carried out a military intervention in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, which culminated in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. It is too early to assess what the international geopolitical impact of this event will ultimately be, but in the days immediately following it we have not observed a negative impact on markets. For the time being, the market does not seem particularly concerned about this event and remains focused on other matters.
However, there are factors with potential consequences. Trump has already expressed his intention to control the country and, in particular, Venezuelan oil. Should this materialise, it could benefit the US energy sector and cause energy prices to fall due to increased supply, which could put downward pressure on inflation over the medium term. That said, it remains to be seen how this transition is managed, as it is not free of risks, both political and economic. We continue to monitor the situation closely and, should we consider it necessary to revise our recommendations, we will let you know in due course.
A very good start to the year!